Snow water equivalent, the water content of the snowpack expressed as a depth, Peak snow water equivalent to cool-season precipitation ratio, Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27. The Columbia River basin will see an increase in flooding over the next 50 years as a result of climate change, new modeling from Oregon State University indicates. Thus, each site is bias-corrected using either naturalized or modified flow but not both. Clima em Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso - weather.com The site at Corra Linn Dam on the Kootenay River is representative of changing hydrographs in many locations in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia. Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. Similarly, three different downscaling approaches were used in the study, each with its own advantages and limitations in the context of different natural resources management applications (Hamlet et al., 2010a). 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). As noted above, such errors are commonly encountered at relatively small spatial scales, particularly when meteorological stations are sparse, and often cannot be resolved using conventional hydrologic model calibration strategies. Dave Rodenhuis, Markus Schnorbus, Arelia Werner, and Katrina Bennett at PCIC at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, also provided in-kind support and funding for collaborative research which contributed materially to this project. . The approach and methods are more fully described in the study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 3) and also by Elsner et al. Fig. Columbia Basin Dive Rescue has been serving the community for almost 50 years. Columbia River Basin Basin Overview . A comprehensive website was to be developed to serve all the data produced by the study, at no cost, to the general public, management professionals agency staff members, scientific researchers, private sector consultants, etc. Des dplacements correspondants des caractristiques dcoulement fluvial du printemps et de lt vers l'hiver sont galement vidents dans les bassins o l'accumulation de neige est importante en hiver (sous le climat actuel). West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. 95 0 obj <> endobj These parameters were chosen because they strongly affect the timing and volume of runoff production in the model simulations and are, in general, not available from observed data. In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). The CRBs cover an area over 87,000 miles 2, with an estimated volume of 50,000 miles 3, and cover about 36 percent of the state. Atmosphere Ocean 51. 2013. Read on for information on our current project. Basin topographic map and smoothed basin boundary at 1/16 degree resolution. La base de donnes du CBCCSP s'est avre une ressource publique prcieuse qui a permis de rduire normment les cots lis un certain nombre dtudes de haute visibilit dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et dans l'ouest des tatsUnis axes sur la coordination technique et la planification. The MOCOM-UA tool uses an objective function (defined by the user) and a shuffle complex evolution procedure to optimize model calibration parameters to create a set of Pareto (equally) optimal calibration parameters. Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel The Assessment will result in a better understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the eight components identified in SECURE in the Columbia River Basin. 8). Final calibration results for the model are shown in Fig. Hydrology and water resources research at CIG was particularly focused on the use of experimental climate and hydrologic forecasts for the CRB (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999a, Citation2000; Lettenmaier & Hamlet, Citation2003; Leung, Hamlet, Lettenmaier, & Kumar, Citation1999) in the context of decision support for various water management applications (Hamlet, Huppert, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2011; Voisin et al., Citation2006). How do I view content? This web site provides streamflow information for the Columbia River and coastal drainages in Washington and Oregon State for the 21st century based on a large number of climate scenarios and model experiments. In addition to creating these datasets, the RMJOC agencies worked together to adopt a set of methods for incorporating these data into those longer-term planning activities. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. By the end of the twenty-first century, essentially the entire state is classified as rain-dominant for the A1B scenario, and the B1 scenario is only slightly different (Fig. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). During initial model development steps, Elsner et al. Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. Until recently, a climate-change induced shift in water supply was the story of the Columbia River Basin's future. Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed, PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, River Bed Elevation Variability Reflects Sediment Supply, Rather Than Peak Flows, in the Uplands of Washington State, Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Saturday Night And Sunday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Using these resources, other modelling groups can carry out their own investigations of hydrologic impacts using either their own hydrologic model (just using the driving data) or the VIC implementation from the CBCCSP. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. 5 Examples of summary plots for monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) (mm) (averaged over the upstream basin area) and raw streamflow not adjusted for bias (cubic metres per second) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon. The study employs a state-of-the-art, end-to-end data processing sequence that moves from raw GCM output to a set of final hydrological products that can be accessed by the user community from a web-accessible database. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. The Assessment was initiated in June 2013 and is expected to completed in December 2015. 2013b. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. Many locations could see increases of 100% or more in the 50-year and 100-year flood magnitude, with some smaller tributaries potentially seeing increases of as much as 175%. It drains roughly 260,000 square miles and travels more than 1,240 miles from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to its confluence with the Pacific Ocean. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Fine-scale calibration of the model to compensate for such errors, although technically feasible, is of questionable utility, because it essentially ensures that the model is getting something closer to the right answer for the wrong reasons, which in turn has the potential to distort the sensitivity of the model to changing future conditions (Bennett, Werner, & Schnorbus, Citation2012). Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. 120 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<6FB239FABFBE0241AD2ED78CAB939AAB><0AF5FFF7A9777A438917926E6F546C9A>]/Index[95 41]/Info 94 0 R/Length 116/Prev 312890/Root 96 0 R/Size 136/Type/XRef/W[1 3 1]>>stream John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. Yakima River Basin Study NWPCC (Northwest Power and Conservation Council). A comprehensive assessment of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10. These lands are those without any sort of status that provides government protection, such as an indigenous territory, or that have not . A number of high-visibility studies have made use of the CBCCSP database to date, a few of which are summarized below. Climate Change Challenge In The Columbia River Basin: Managing Water Figure 1. (2000). We use cookies to improve your website experience. Figure 10 shows a map of Q100 ratios (future Q100 to historical Q100) for 297 river locations and a scatterplot of the Q100 ratio as a function of winter temperature regime in each basin. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin Fig. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate that's different from 50 years ago. These annual peak daily flows are then ranked and assigned a quantile value using an unbiased quantile estimator based on the method of Cunane (Stedinger, Vogel, & Foufoula-Georgiou, Citation1993). Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). Data from the CBCCSP are currently supporting two CIG studies funded by the LCCs and the CSC, including a study of impacts to wetlands in the PNW (funded by the North Pacific LCC and the PNWCSC) and a study assessing climatic and hydrologic extremes and their effects on ecosystems over the western United States (funded by the PNWCSC). These products are available for all 77 climate scenarios listed in Table 1, as well as for the historical simulation. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting? In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. Source: Bonneville Power Administration. Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. Detailed water balance summaries and streamflow data for up to 300 river locations to be specified by WDOE and other stakeholders in the region. Model calibration and validation used a split sample approach in which calibration was performed for each of the 11 primary watersheds over a 15-year period (typically water years 19751989) and model validation was performed over a separate 15-year period (typically water years 19601974). Topographic corrections for precipitation and temperature are carried out by rescaling the data by a fixed factor for each calendar month so that the mean values from 1971 to 2000 match the PRISM climatology for the same period. Daily and monthly average streamflow for all projections listed in Table 1 and, where possible, daily and monthly bias-corrected streamflow values. Highs around 80. completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. The Climate Resilience Program helps communities in the Basin become more climate resilient by supporting large-scale, multi-year, shovel-ready climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience projects that address sources of climate change or manage the risks of climate change impacts. Monthly hydrographs in different portions of the domain primarily reflect changes in snow accumulation and melt processes and seasonal changes in precipitation (generally wetter falls, winters, and springs and drier summers). 2012. 2), for which overall errors in meteorological driving data were assumed to be relatively small; then, using these model parameters, to check the results in smaller sub-catchments. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Demand factored into Columbia River Basin's future - WSU Insider Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Since its inception in 1995, CIG has been extensively involved in climate-related research focused on the CRB and its water resources management systems. Climate Resilience - Columbia Basin Trust Click the download link to get the current station data. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals, Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River basin, Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S, Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S, Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western U.S, An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature, Optimized flood control in the Columbia River basin for a global warming scenario, Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Nio-Southern Oscillation classification, Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario, Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience (Chapter 7), Water resources implications of global warming, a U.S. regional perspective, Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin, A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. What Makes The Columbia River Basin Unique and How We Benefit Although this project consists of an abbreviated set of scenarios and products using three scenarios (high, medium, and low impact) for one downscaling method, the CBCCSP played an important role in providing an established set of methods for developing historical driving datasets and implementing and running the hydrologic models. Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). A family of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the IPCC effort (Nakienovi et al. endstream endobj startxref Weather for Queens Cup Basin, British Columbia, Canada Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow and mixed-rain-and-snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. 3. Nous avons implment une rsolution latitudelongitude calibre 1/16 de degr dans le modle capacit d'infiltration variable (VIC) et avons appliqu dans le modle bassin du fleuve Columbia pour produire des simulations historiques et 77 projections hydrologiques futures correspondant trois mthodes de rduction dchelle statistique et trois priodes futures (les dcennies 2020, 2040 et 2080). 12). Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. The CBCCSP also provided a complete and well-tested data processing sequence for post-processing and summarizing the hydrologic data to provide figures and analysis efficiently. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for the Tri-Cities, Walla Walla, Hermiston, and surrounding areas in effect from 04:00 to 22:00 Sunday. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. A primary focus of the Assessment is to generate future climate change flow at more than 300 locations across the Columbia River Basin (Basin) and evaluated the potential impact of those flows at specific sub-basins within the Basin. Isaak DJ et al. Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate Thanks to Sean Fleming (Environment Canada) for spearheading this contribution to Atmosphere-Ocean. This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. 135 0 obj <>stream Although a number of pilot climate change studies have been carried out in the CRB in collaboration with various water management agencies in the past (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005), the RMJOC study was something of a landmark in that it was the first time that the BPA, USBR, and USACE used climate change information in coordinated interagency planning exercises in the CRB. Using the VIC model, Mote, Hamlet, Clark, and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), Mote, Hamlet, and Salath (Citation2008), for example, showed excellent reproduction of observed trends in 1 April SWE over both the PNW as a whole and over the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. 3099067 The BCSD runs are transient runs from 1950 to 2098 or 1950 to 2099 (depending on the GCM). The objective function for the optimization process in this case was: where Q is the monthly streamflow; NSE(Q) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] and typically between [0,1]; NSE(log(Q+1)) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] (this metric places less emphasis on high flow errors in calculating NSE); Vol_Err(Q) is the annual volume error (in 1000 acre feet); R 2(Q)=R 2 (squared correlation coefficient between simulated and observed Q), which varies between [0,1]; Peak_Diff(Q) is the mean hydrograph peak differencethe absolute value varies for different sites; RMSE(Q) is the root mean square error, whose absolute value varies for different sites; and NumSC(Q) is the number of sign changes in the errors (this metric penalizes simulations with too much month-to-month variability in comparison with observations). Full article: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Simulation of spatial variability in snow and frozen soil, A multi-model ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of two anonymous reviewers and the lead and associate editors for Atmosphere-Ocean, whose constructive suggestions substantially improved the paper during the review process. Hamlet, A. F., Carrasco, P., Deems, J., Elsner, M. M., Kamstra, T., Lee, C., Lee, S-Y, Mauger, G., Salathe, E. P., Tohver, I., & Binder, L. W. (2010a). Figures and summary tables for flood statistics and low-flow statistics. A number of sub-basins are nested within each other, as shown in the right panel along with their relative sizes. Home | Columbia Basin Climate Source (Citation2010). Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). A set of simpler, lumped-storage reservoir operations models was used to quantify impacts in a number of smaller water supply systems. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. PDF Columbia River Basin Fact Sheet - usbr.gov Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. O weather.com oferece para voc a previso do tempo mais precisa para Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso com mdias/recordes e temperaturas mximas/mnimas, precipitaes e muito mais. Climate Change Impacts on the Columbia Basin Site specific data [Data]. For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. Registered in England & Wales No. 6). The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. A number of regional partners provided recommendations for streamflow locations and other in-kind support including Jesse Abner (MDNR), Steve Running (University of Montana), Hal Anderson (IDWR) Levi Brekke, Pat McGrane and John Roache (USBR), Carolyn Fitzgerald (Seattle District USACE), Seshu Vaddey and Randy Wortman (Portland District USACE). The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. The Columbia Basin Climate Source is your one-stop destination for information about climate change, impacts, and action in this region. The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. At the other extreme, for those without any hydrologic modelling or post-processing capability the study provides a wide range of hydrologic products that can be used without any expertise in the preceding steps. Salem, Oregon. As noted above, the study also supports planning efforts over a wide range of geographic scales. A remote sensing approach, The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams, The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model, Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II.